Preparing for an unknown world -Turning point for political economy
Once COVID 19 abates, we will be reminded of how everything changed, of the world that was. But the unfolding crisis contains profound lessons for the future.
In July 1944, when International Delegates met at Bretton Woods to prepare a postwar world, the war was still far from over. Yet, recalling the missed opportunities that followed the previous world war, they understood that the focus had to shift from ending the war to establishing new foundations. Today's global economy faces very different challenges, but important parallels remain urgency and speed of action are as crucial as the need to mobilize resources at real scale.
There are large unknowns about how long it will take to develop and deploy effective vaccines, the duration and likelihood of repeat outbreaks and lockdowns, and the eventual economic ramifications. Even so, it is possible to identify some fixed points for an international post Covid 19 order.
First, international collaboration on mounting effective public health responses that rely on solid scientific consensus on disease causes and mitigation is vital. Public health responses require a universal focus on pandemics. Emerging market and developing economies, many of which are grossly ill-equipped to face the current health and economic shock, are increasingly on the front lines of the spread of the disease. Chances of third and Fourth waves of pandemic outbreaks cannot be ruled out unless the virus is contained everywhere. Calls for funding to mitigate the pandemic's economic fallout in poorer countries are being heeded. But attention to assuring that the production and distribution of future vaccines worldwide will be rapid and affordable, as also universally available is equally important. Realizing this goal will require that rules regarding pricing and manufacturing are designed and enforced in ways that value international solidarity and collaboration.
Second, lockdown has placed technology squarely at the forefront of work, consumption, supply, interaction and delivery. Digitalization of services - from Tele health to online education to cash less transfers and emergency assistance to support the vulnerable - has been center of country responses.
The need for contact less payments is pushing shift from cash to digital payments and digitalisation of business models and supply chains is reshaping commerce and industry. There is also urgent need to reform education systems and workforce training to reduce skill mismatches for a technology-enabled workplace. The pandemic has exposed the disconnect between workers deemed essential in this fight - such as those working in health care, eldercare, agriculture and grocery stores- and their benefits and job security. Severe social protection deficits for these workers and the countless others who work in the informal economy will need to be addressed.
Third, pandemics are a harsh reminder of relevance of natural phenomena and need for ensuring long-term resilience. Climate action and sustainability can gain renewed priority as fiscal stimulus
packages are deployed to jump-start the economic recovery. Moving towards a lower carbon economy is daunting but imperative, and we must rise to this challenge collectively.
The post-Covid 19 order will be created. But the problems thrown into sharp relief by the crisis remain. Poverty, rampant inequality, declining biodiversity, environmental degradation and scarcity of clean water still need to be tackled. So do the long - standing inequities in our societies.
There could be a silver lining. Enough mobilization of resources for public purposes on a scale
witnessed only in time of war. But the current war is being waged against a common enemy. The solidarity accumulated in times of Global Lockdown and disease could be a valuable foundation on which to build.
- - - - - - - - - - -
In July 1944, when International Delegates met at Bretton Woods to prepare a postwar world, the war was still far from over. Yet, recalling the missed opportunities that followed the previous world war, they understood that the focus had to shift from ending the war to establishing new foundations. Today's global economy faces very different challenges, but important parallels remain urgency and speed of action are as crucial as the need to mobilize resources at real scale.
There are large unknowns about how long it will take to develop and deploy effective vaccines, the duration and likelihood of repeat outbreaks and lockdowns, and the eventual economic ramifications. Even so, it is possible to identify some fixed points for an international post Covid 19 order.
First, international collaboration on mounting effective public health responses that rely on solid scientific consensus on disease causes and mitigation is vital. Public health responses require a universal focus on pandemics. Emerging market and developing economies, many of which are grossly ill-equipped to face the current health and economic shock, are increasingly on the front lines of the spread of the disease. Chances of third and Fourth waves of pandemic outbreaks cannot be ruled out unless the virus is contained everywhere. Calls for funding to mitigate the pandemic's economic fallout in poorer countries are being heeded. But attention to assuring that the production and distribution of future vaccines worldwide will be rapid and affordable, as also universally available is equally important. Realizing this goal will require that rules regarding pricing and manufacturing are designed and enforced in ways that value international solidarity and collaboration.
Second, lockdown has placed technology squarely at the forefront of work, consumption, supply, interaction and delivery. Digitalization of services - from Tele health to online education to cash less transfers and emergency assistance to support the vulnerable - has been center of country responses.
The need for contact less payments is pushing shift from cash to digital payments and digitalisation of business models and supply chains is reshaping commerce and industry. There is also urgent need to reform education systems and workforce training to reduce skill mismatches for a technology-enabled workplace. The pandemic has exposed the disconnect between workers deemed essential in this fight - such as those working in health care, eldercare, agriculture and grocery stores- and their benefits and job security. Severe social protection deficits for these workers and the countless others who work in the informal economy will need to be addressed.
Third, pandemics are a harsh reminder of relevance of natural phenomena and need for ensuring long-term resilience. Climate action and sustainability can gain renewed priority as fiscal stimulus
packages are deployed to jump-start the economic recovery. Moving towards a lower carbon economy is daunting but imperative, and we must rise to this challenge collectively.
The post-Covid 19 order will be created. But the problems thrown into sharp relief by the crisis remain. Poverty, rampant inequality, declining biodiversity, environmental degradation and scarcity of clean water still need to be tackled. So do the long - standing inequities in our societies.
There could be a silver lining. Enough mobilization of resources for public purposes on a scale
witnessed only in time of war. But the current war is being waged against a common enemy. The solidarity accumulated in times of Global Lockdown and disease could be a valuable foundation on which to build.
- - - - - - - - - - -
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