Way out of confinement due to Covid 19
Several countries in Asia and Europe, where Covid 19 outbreak appears to have peaked, are gradually reopening their economies. In the absence of an effective vaccine or treatment, authorities will have to weigh the benefits of resuming economic activity against the potential cost of a spike in infection rates. They face difficult decisions, in part because the costs of erring one way or other could be enormous. The authorities are opting for a gradual and sequenced process of reopening in parallel with the adoption of more prevention and containment measures. The pandemic has highlighted the role of public sector in saving lives and livelihoods.
Crucially, this effort has been supplemented by large scale screening tests, including the initiation of randomized checks in selected provinces, and systematic follow- up using mobile phone applications to quickly trace contacts of any new positive cases detected. All countries contemplate using sanitary and social distancing measures to mitigate the risk of a new wave of infections, but they differ in terms of the type and intensity of such measures. Achieving control buys time and allows us to learn more about the virus and the successes and failures of other countries.
In both Europe and Asia, lock downs and other restrictions have imposed a significant economic and psychological cost on citizens, and their desire to roll back these measures and reopen economies is all too understandable. However, moving too early and before wide-reaching measures to quickly identify and contain new infections are in place would put the gains in fighting the spread of Covid- 19 at stake and risks imposing new human and economic costs. Pandemic related job losses dis- proportiontely harm workers with only basic levels of education.
In charting their path out of this unprecedented lock down, the economies in Asia and Europe should proceed carefully and resist the urge to do too much too soon and risk a relapse.
Following four options available for coming out of lock down once we have gained initial control, though each of four approaches is associated with high risks -
1) Option 1 - Relax lock down measures completely, prioritising a return to normal social and
economic freedoms over suppressing infection.
2) Option 2 - Limit community transmission and ensure case remain very low until a vaccine is
developed.
3) Option 3 - Push to eradicate completely the virus and avoid rebound when social distancing
measures are relaxed, as long as the borders remain closed.
4 Option 4 - Relax some measures and allow infection in a very controlled manner, while protecting
the elderly and vulnerable.
Although there are no easy answers, one need to actively debate the exit strategy now, and collect the necessary information to guide decision making. May have to consider different solutions in different environments, but with an over arching strategy that is Nationally coordinated.
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Crucially, this effort has been supplemented by large scale screening tests, including the initiation of randomized checks in selected provinces, and systematic follow- up using mobile phone applications to quickly trace contacts of any new positive cases detected. All countries contemplate using sanitary and social distancing measures to mitigate the risk of a new wave of infections, but they differ in terms of the type and intensity of such measures. Achieving control buys time and allows us to learn more about the virus and the successes and failures of other countries.
In both Europe and Asia, lock downs and other restrictions have imposed a significant economic and psychological cost on citizens, and their desire to roll back these measures and reopen economies is all too understandable. However, moving too early and before wide-reaching measures to quickly identify and contain new infections are in place would put the gains in fighting the spread of Covid- 19 at stake and risks imposing new human and economic costs. Pandemic related job losses dis- proportiontely harm workers with only basic levels of education.
In charting their path out of this unprecedented lock down, the economies in Asia and Europe should proceed carefully and resist the urge to do too much too soon and risk a relapse.
Following four options available for coming out of lock down once we have gained initial control, though each of four approaches is associated with high risks -
1) Option 1 - Relax lock down measures completely, prioritising a return to normal social and
economic freedoms over suppressing infection.
2) Option 2 - Limit community transmission and ensure case remain very low until a vaccine is
developed.
3) Option 3 - Push to eradicate completely the virus and avoid rebound when social distancing
measures are relaxed, as long as the borders remain closed.
4 Option 4 - Relax some measures and allow infection in a very controlled manner, while protecting
the elderly and vulnerable.
Although there are no easy answers, one need to actively debate the exit strategy now, and collect the necessary information to guide decision making. May have to consider different solutions in different environments, but with an over arching strategy that is Nationally coordinated.
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